The US leaves Iraq in 2011. Obama was determined to put a “responsible end” to the war. The Iraqi military was not fully trained. The enemy within the country had not been destroyed, disrupted, or really even defeated. (There is a military definition for each of these objectives…and they are NOT all the same thing.)
Now, less than three years later, the militants are back on the rise, and faster on the move. Fallujah has fallen. Mosul, once a Kurdish strongpoint now flies the black banner of Al Qaeda. Kirkuk, also a Kurdish enclave has been bypassed. Tikrit, Saddam’s hometown is now in Islamist hands. They are making their way to Bagdad. Iraqi security forces, trained by the US, financed and armed by the US, are fleeing in droves at the first sign of conflict. They have no stomach for the fight. Not just against their own “countrymen” or “other Muslims”, but against anyone pointing a gun in their direction. One has to wonder how this rabble held their own against the Iranians in their decade-long war.
Prime Minister Malaki has requested US military assistance, primarily in the form of airstrikes. He doesn’t want US boots on the ground again, but doesn’t mind the intrusion of their airspace or the dropping of lethal ordinance onto his soil. After all, it is surgical, sanitary, and over very quickly. If we drop a bomb in the wrong place, which is very likely since we have none of our own highly trained ground controllers talking to the planes, he can then blame us for our blood thirsty incompetence.
Malaki spoke with the feckless and eternal foreign policy boob Joe Biden in May. A formal written request soon followed. But so far we’re content to lose in a matter of weeks what it took 10 years of blood, sweat, and treasure to win. Why? We don’t like the way Malaki runs his government. We want him to be more “inclusive” to the Sunni sect. For now we are letting them fend for themselves. And they are not fending well.
The leading administration response is to supply the Iraqis with whatever military hardware they need (that they are capable of handling–so no stealth fighters). That’s just great. Fill the country with more small arms and ammunition that will merely fall into the hands of the Islamists when the country implodes.
Let’s picture why, just for a few minutes.
The typical Iraqi soldier is poorly trained and equipped. He has no solid chain of command, and his first line leader is there based on bloodline and family lineage rather than skill, tenure, or military prowess. Sent to man a post, he probably carries his poorly maintained AK47, that is fondled, dropped, and mishandled by the guy before him on shift. He has but a single magazine of ammunition. His pay is sporadic and rarely in full based on the kickbacks he has to pay to the same superiors that fail to really lead him, or the outright theft of the funds before he is even paid. He has no solid identity, no morale, or reason to fight.
His enemy is well trained, well equipped, and has been indoctrinated into why he is there. He has been convinced of his moral superiority based on a warped interpretation of his religion. But barring anything else to hold on to, he follows, sure in the knowledge that his comrades would kill him if he chose not to. Fighting, killing, pillaging, and dying are all they know. His is a profession, not a pay check. He believes in the prize of paradise if he dies. To gain entrance, he need only to die for Allah, convert his enemy to Allah, or kill his enemy. It is difficult to fight that deep of an ideology.
There is a scene from the movie 300 that fits here. The Spartans are on their way to the Hot Gates. They come across a band of Arcadians larger in number. The Arcadian leader is shocked that Leonidas would bring only 300 while he brought many more. Leonidas points at one and asks his profession. “Blacksmith” is the answer. He quizzes another. “Potter” he is told. Leonidas looks over his shoulder and asks, “Spartans! What is your profession?” In unison they all cry out with a hearty “AAAHHHOOOOO!” Leonidas looks at the Arcadian and says, “You see, friend, I brought more soldiers than you.”
This is what the Iraqis face. A determined, equipped, motivated, and capable force of people better trained in the military arts. And as anyone forced into position and then not supported, they flee.
Iraq will cease to be a functioning state within 60 days. ISIS will join with the Syrians. The Kurds will make a move towards independence which will infuriate the Turks. Iran will scoop up what is left. Our greater than 4500 war dead will weep from their graves.
***Update from 6/16/14 *** Iraq burns. Mosul has fallen. Tikrit is in Islamist’s hands. Tal Afar is now in enemy hands allowing the Syrian and Irqi contingents of terrorists to join territories. Washington response? SecState kerry talks about the real national security issue–climate change. Obama gives a similar speech to a college class, thelling them to “take on” doubters. He then jets off to Palm Springs to golf–without his National Security Adviser.
Iraq is yours, Iran. If you but take it.