If you’ve ever played Risk you recognize the difficulty that comes from trying to conquer, then maintain “Russia” (the greenish colored countries). Five countries (Ural, Afghanistan, Middle East, Siam, and Kamchatka) are the gateways into Russia, defending against attacks from Alaska, Ukraine, Egypt, East Africa, and Indonesia. Twelve countries make up the “continent” and owning it is rewarded by an extra 7 armies per turn. North America, by contrast is only comprised of 9 countries and has to defend 3 ways in. Owning it is worth an extra 5 armies per turn.
So, why the Parker Brothers geopolitical lesson? The game parallels today’s current events. When someone finally makes their play to control that continent, anyone owning those countries in Africa, Europe, America, and Australia have no choice but to attack. To sit back and wait is to allow that player to consolidate power until they possess such overwhelming force to blast a path through all adjoining continents. Letting someone control all of Russia is to cower and hope to be eaten last.
It is where we are today. It is difficult to maintain control of a large continent like Russia. But, Putin is doing it. He took Crimea and the world basically yawned. Obama scolded and John Kerry (Did you know he served in Vietnam?) wagged a finger at him and said “you don’t do that in the 21st century.” They both told our fledgling allies that Russian is naked and alone. But just as in high school, the football jocks with the huge package aren’t at all embarrassed by being seen naked in the locker room. They may even perversely enjoy it. Now, he is parked on the eastern edge of the Ukraine with 100,000 troops and armor. Europe is decidedly not going to be eaten last.
Putin is a bully and a thug. He is a former KGB Colonel. He recognizes power and preys on opportunity and weakness. The world and especially Obama have given him plenty of both. The only thing he respects (or fears) is someone stronger than him with the demonstrated resolve to use that strength.
I’m not advocating for war. We’ve had enough of that for a while. Plus, we don’t have any military-minded or experienced people in positions of decision making where it comes to the use and training of our military. It is an art and a science. You don’t enlist at the rank of Sergeant or Colonel. But we have to do something. Doing nothing is simply asking to be eaten last. We’ve been the world’s policeman for so long, it IS our job now. No one else is going to do it, or could even if we asked them to.
But we could stop him—and without firing a shot (unless he said screw it and attacked.) K.T. McFarland wrote this great article about how it could be done.
Will we do it? I doubt it. After all, Obama just canceled the two missile programs that won us our last three conflicts. Yes, the Tomahawk and Hellfire missile programs were quietly defunded this week. Putin probably cannot believe his good fortune.